To what extent can we use intellectual constructs and analytical tools to make sense of (and predict?) complex social phenomena?

As we wrap up our introduction to International Relations and Game Theory in IB Glopo Year 1, we encounter the always-fascinating Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and his throughly-viewed TED talk on predicting the future of Iran. Those of you wanting to to explore more of Bueno de Mesquita's ideas (without reading The War Trap or The Predictioneer's Game in their entirety) would best be served by having at go at The War Trap: Revisited and Toward a Scientific Understanding of International Conflict: A Personal View (as an aside, this would be a great article to float in your TOK class at some point). Happy watching and reading!